The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted “above-normal” hurricane activity this summer in its annual outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
A news release from the organization published on May 22 forecasts a range of 13 to 19 total named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. NOAA estimated a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season, a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season.
Of the number of storms predicted, six to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher. Three to five of those may become major category 3, 4 or 5 hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher.
NOAA stated in the release it has 70 percent confidence in these ranges.
“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, in the release. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.”
This year’s hurricane season is expected to be above normal because of warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear and potential for higher activity from the West African monsoon, NOAA stated.
ENSO-neutral conditions, otherwise referred to as El Niño and La Niña, are also optimal this year for producing storms. More on the El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle can be read here.
In short, the more heat there is settling in the Atlantic Basin, the more energy there is to fuel potential storms. NOAA stated that a reduction in trade winds also allows these storms to develop without disruption.
“As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm, in the release. “NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property.”
The release stated that 2025’s hurricane season also has potential for the West African monsoon to produce tropical waves feeding into some of the “strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms”
“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” said Ken Graham, NOAA’s national weather service director, in the release. “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”
Boaters can read more about how to prepare for the upcoming hurricane season with proper vessel storage and an overview on insurance coverage here.
